Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
